Rob, Luisa, and the 80000 Hours team

I guess another reaction is, it's not going to happen because it's going to be like preceded by like a gradual disempowerment.

We're going to be like instantly disempowered or very rapidly disempowered because like, I don't know, you think there's going to be like super intelligence explosion that AI would take over.

There'll be like a human coup.

There'll be like a disaster that kills everyone.

I guess, how do you weigh up the importance of this set of ways that things could go bad against all the other ways that things could potentially also go bad?

Or I guess the possibility that things are actually quite boring.

So what's your breakdown of probability of doom or probability of a bad outcome from like acute disempowerment versus gradual disempowerment?

I see.

And how much lower would your P doom be if you felt that, I guess, a very dynamic future full of lots of intelligence, intelligent beings, like doing stuff, admittedly, that you like presently don't find very beautiful, if you thought that was like a good future?

Yeah.

Why do you think that competition is going to win at the highest level?

I think I probably have the reverse intuition.

Either that you end up with one group taking over completely or you end up with some sort of negotiated agreement that splits the non-Earth resources in the universe because people anticipate that the alternative is destruction.

Yeah.

I guess at a very zoomed out level, as humans spread across the world, the number of independent political entities became very, very large.

And then it's kind of consolidated progressively over time as we've been able to travel further in a given amount of time.

We've been able to communicate more across different groups.

I guess you were saying earlier, we're close to having almost one global culture now.

So there's much more homogeneity than there previously was.

I guess that maybe is favorable for the idea that, well, maybe we will kind of have like one governing entity over everyone that would be like quite powerful.