Rob Wiblin
speaker
5,091 appearances
15 recordings
1 series
first heard Oct 2021
last heard 6 Aug
Rob Wiblin’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 13 in all, peaking in Apr 2026 with 3.
Appearances
80,000 Hours Podcast · What the hell happened with AGI timelines in 2026? – Rob Wiblin · 4 Aug 2026
podcast
That has left Anthropic's annualized revenue run rate at $47 billion in May.
The short-term trend is so extreme, if you naively extrapolate it out, you find that Anthropic would have revenue equal to the entire world's current GDP in early 2028.
That's less than two years from now.
Now, keep in mind, these numbers are based on averages over very short periods of time.
The annualized revenue run rate is what you get if you look at revenue earned in one month and then multiply it by 12 to project out that growth over a whole year.
But these numbers are remarkable no matter how you slice it.
You might think that this growth is only happening because Anthropic and OpenAI, they're selling their models at a loss.
As the old joke goes, we lose money on every sale, but we make it up in volume.
But that's absolutely not the case here.
Anthropic sells their AI for more than it costs to serve it.
In fact, the most recent data indicates that the gross margins on their infrastructure have increased from 38% to over 70% over the year to May 2026.
There's some debate about exactly what costs should be included and excluded in that calculation, but a good bet is that Anthropic is selling AI for more than twice what it costs them to answer a given prompt.
Why does all of that matter?
Three reasons.
Firstly, healthy revenue growth is going to keep investors just chucking money at the sector and investing, building more chips, all of it.
Second, as Anthropic reaches gross profitability, they're then able to use that revenue to help cover the enormous fixed costs involved in doing research and training models and not having to always rely on additional investment for that.
And third, revenue growth strongly suggests that people and businesses are getting real value out of AI, enough to spend lots of hard, cold cash on it.
In the past, at least some commentators have argued that AI is kind of useless and the whole sector is fake or at best a toy for enthusiasts.
And if I'm honest, when I was using AI three or four years ago, I couldn't really find a productive use for it.
It was mostly a toy for me.
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