Rob Wiblin

speaker

5,091 appearances 15 recordings 1 series first heard Oct 2021 last heard 6 Aug

Rob Wiblin’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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recordings per month · last 12 months

Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 13 in all, peaking in Apr 2026 with 3.

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80,000 Hours Podcast · What the hell happened with AGI timelines in 2026? – Rob Wiblin · 4 Aug 2026 podcast

And when these companies focus hard on a particular narrow skill, they tend to get really big performance gains there.

As more and more people tried out Cloud Code, and then Cloud Cowork brought agents to millions and millions more, a third big wave of AI hype swept the tech industry.

And we're still in that wave now, as far as I can see.

If anything, it's only gotten more intense as 2026 has gone on.

But we know that since 2021, vibes about AI have jumped up and down like crazy, somewhat independently of the underlying technical reality.

So if we want to properly understand what we've learned this year, we need to turn to more concrete evidence and more concrete research findings.

Let's do that now.

Let's start with exhibit one.

AI revenue is exploding.

As you probably know, the revenue of the major AI companies is currently going through the roof.

How fast exactly?

Probably the fastest rate of any industry of this size in history.

Over the past six months, the combined revenues of OpenAI and Anthropic have been rising at an annualized rate of 700%.

And if you look at just the last three months, they've been growing at an annualized rate of 1600%.

These are mind-blowing numbers for an industry that's already doing over $50 billion in revenue.

And if you narrow in on just the most successful company, Anthropic, the figures are even more eye-popping.

Over the last 5.5 months, Anthropic's revenue has been growing at a rate of 8,400%.

That is to say, if that growth was sustained over a year, it would end up being 85 times larger than it started.

And if you zoom in on just the last three months, it's even faster.

116-fold growth over a year.

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