Rob Wiblin
speaker
5,091 appearances
15 recordings
1 series
first heard Oct 2021
last heard 6 Aug
Rob Wiblin’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 13 in all, peaking in Apr 2026 with 3.
Appearances
Why could it take until 2040 or even longer than that to get to AGI?
So I feel like that line of argument, it certainly gets me out to 2030.
It probably gets me out to 2035.
And then I'm like, 2040, 2045.
I just sort of have a degree of disbelief about that things could take that long.
I guess just given the level that the AIs are operating at now.
By 2040, even on conservative productions, we'd have 10,000 times as much compute, maybe much, much more.
We'd have done so many more experiments.
There'll be many more people working in the industry.
Do you share, is there any intuitive disbelief or astonishment you have at the idea that it would take until then?
And suck compute away from everyone else.
New host on the show, Tom Reed, he recently wrote a piece arguing that he suspects that it's not possible to have a recursive self-improvement loop that takes you to superintelligence just occurring in a data center because you won't have enough training data to become highly skilled at many different kinds of tasks.
Because in order to do that, you actually have to try doing the task.
You have to be deployed in the real world, in factories and in offices in order to get the training data and the feedback.
to become highly skilled at those things.
And he thought this was going to be like a super important constraint.
Do you buy it?
And having lots of concrete
Yeah, I thought it was a very interesting point.
I guess Tom sounded pretty confident that this was going to lead to big delays, and I think that might be right, but I also think I might be wrong for a couple of different reasons.
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