Rob

Do we actually desperately want to bend over backwards to achieve a ceasefire if we think that, in fact, that is only going to be the beginning of another stage of set of provocations or of risks that are created?

Maybe in a sense, I mean, it's horrific for Ukraine, but in a sense, you have Russia bogged down in this quagmire in Ukraine.

They don't have attention or resources to focus on anyone else to be hassling other countries.

So maybe that's actually quite a convenient place to leave them stuck.

So back when we spoke in 2022, you thought that the war was, as I understand, was primarily motivated by Russia's security fears, as you know, NATO encroachment and encirclement, as opposed to kind of a genuine ideological belief that Ukraine is and always has been Russian and that Ukrainian nationality is basically fake.

I guess since then, we've seen...

we've got like many years of track record of Russian behavior, including like forced Russification, child deportation on a very big scale.

Does the identity or nationalist motivation now seem kind of any more central to you than it did back then?

Right, right, right.

Do you think, in a sense, Russia's security position seems worse now, right?

NATO, in many ways, is more up in their business.

It's got a bigger border.

Europe is rearming.

The negativity towards Russia is enormous.

I guess, is it possible that, if anything, the security concerns are more salient to Russia now, perhaps, than they were years ago?

Because they've accidentally, I guess, weakened themselves.

I guess the reason why I ask about the balance of motivations is that I think so much of the discussion about how to achieve a ceasefire is focused on the – like assuaging Russian security fears angle.

If in fact the biggest – like I guess it's a very centralized authoritarian country in a way where Putin's personal opinions unfortunately carry so much sway.

If he just literally is like –

incredibly motivated by absolute contempt for the notion of Ukrainian nationality and independence, then satisfying, like making pragmatic concessions on Ukrainian neutrality or bringing weapons back further from Russia's border, maybe that won't be the thing that will enable a ceasefire to get over the line.