Rob

Are there characteristics of any ceasefire that would be important to have, primarily with a view to preventing escalation between NATO and Russia in other areas, you know, the gray war stuff, the hybrid war or like incursions elsewhere?

Is there any relationship between these?

Yeah, let's talk about the Nuclear Arms Control Treaty.

So, yeah, New START, I think, expired a couple of weeks ago.

This was, I guess, a treaty that had limits for US and Russian active nuclear arsenals that had been in place for, I guess, the current version, the previous version for a couple of decades.

I think very sad to see it go.

Russia, I believe...

offered to extend it for a year and the U.S.

just batted that away and said it wasn't very interested.

Do you think if we could accomplish this kind of ceasefire, do you think we could have a new era of negotiations over these mutually concerns about these most severe issues that both the U.S.

and Russia, despite their differences, really probably would like to reach agreements on?

Back in 2022 when we spoke, you argued, I think, against Sweden and Finland joining NATO on the grounds that it would create too much risk of escalation with Russia, enormously expanding the border between NATO and Russia.

I guess in the event they both did join, I think in 2023 and 2024, and Russia kind of accepted it without, well, I guess they complained a bunch, but, you know, we're all still here.

And I think arguably it made NATO's eastern flank somewhat more defensible.

The defence of the Baltics is substantially more feasible now than perhaps it was before they joined.

Do you think your analysis at the time was mistaken or did we get lucky or is there something else going on?

I guess, yeah, you as a general feature of your worldview, you favour negotiations and trying to aim for pragmatic deals with powerful countries, even ones that we think are led by bad people doing evil things.

And that's kind of my realist pragmatic instinct as well.

But I think...

Preparing for the episode, I was looking at what are the best objections to this entire mentality.