Robert Brokamp
speaker
4,580 appearances
41 recordings
3 series
first heard Oct 2025
last heard 2d ago
Robert Brokamp’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 41 in all, peaking in Sep 2026 with 5.
Appearances
It would have survived the worst conditions since 1926.
And as you say, the majority of retirees would have been able to take out more, in some cases, much more.
So what would have been the withdrawal rates if you look at maybe like an average case scenario or even maybe a best case scenario?
In your book, you do provide success rates of other withdrawal rates.
So withdrawing 5.5% did not deplete a retiree's portfolio in 90% of historical periods.
A 6% withdrawal rate was successful 75% of the time.
And as you point out, a 7% withdrawal rate was about the average, so around a 50-50 success rate there.
What you've done more recently is try to find clues that would help retirees determine whether they could take out more than 4.7% and enjoy more of their money in retirement, and also when they should play it safer.
And you eventually came across the research of financial planning expert, Michael Kitsis, who documented a relationship between stock market valuations and the SafeMax.
Tell us about that.
Yeah, you looked at that.
One of the things you pointed out in your book is that generally speaking, if the market is cheap, it's going to do okay.
You point out that there was only really one bear market when the stock market was cheap.
That was in the early 80s when Paul Volcker, the Federal Reserve Chairman, raised rates to bring down inflation.
Whereas when the market is expensive, you're more likely to see a bear market, which of course could be very rough on your retirement.
So you found that market valuation was helpful.
Not a perfect predictor though, whether retiree could enjoy a higher safe max.
So then you moved on to researching whether inflation at the start of retirement was the most important factor.
What did you find?
You provide in your book some what you call safe max finder tables based on three inflation regimes, low inflation, middle inflation, high inflation.
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