Robert Brokamp
speaker
4,580 appearances
41 recordings
3 series
first heard Oct 2025
last heard 2d ago
Robert Brokamp’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 41 in all, peaking in Sep 2026 with 5.
Appearances
And then once you determine which inflation regime you're in, then you look up the CAPE ratio and that gives you a hint of what could be your safe max.
Although you point out in the book, there are other factors to consider and we'll touch on some of them.
But when you look at that chart, it implies that withdrawal rates could be as high as 6% or 7%.
And that might be surprising to a lot of people.
And we're in a medium inflation environment, but I'm assuming you recommend that withdrawal rate because the CAPE is so high at this point, about the second highest level it's ever been.
These days, I think there is more awareness of the impacts of a bear market, maybe right before retirement, but especially right after retirement.
And your research bears that out.
So tell us about why what happens in that first decade of retirement is so important.
If you have a bear market, say, in your 20th year of retirement or 25th year of retirement, at that point, your research indicates that's of course not great, but chances are you're still gonna be okay.
Your book describes how a personal withdrawal plan can be developed by choosing various options among what you call eight elements.
There are two other elements, which we just discussed, valuation and inflation, and then there are eight elements.
We won't discuss all eight in this podcast, but the first is your withdrawal scheme, right?
You discuss a few in your book.
Tell us generally about how a retiree might use guidelines to maybe take out a little bit more if the portfolio is doing well, but maybe cut back if the portfolio declines.
Another important element is timeframe.
Your base case assumption is a 30 year retirement.
So, you know, someone who retires at 65 would assume they live to 95, which I think is in the neighborhood of what most financial planners recommend.
What about people who are retiring sooner, you know, maybe in their fifties, maybe a little sooner, or what if they're already in their seventies or older?
You also looked at how asset allocation affects safe withdrawal rates, and you kind of settled on a sort of a base case allocation for a lot of your illustrations in your book.
55% stocks, and those stocks are allocated amongst five asset classes.
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