Robert Pape

History, we need to understand, we're watching history in motion now.

And when we read about history of the past events, that kind of smooths out the lumpiness of history.

That's true.

History is lumpier, and that's why it feels lumpier, you know, not linear.

But the truth is, when we write about these events, it's going to seem pretty linear.

So this is what I was anticipating when I said an attack on a U.S.

Navy ship.

And also, this is what I published yesterday morning on the Substack before all this really unfolded, is the key threshold here for the Trump administration is likely going to be

Iran attacking US Navy ships directly, hitting one of those ships.

Now, of course, they're not oblivious to the attack on the UAE, and they're not going to be oblivious to attack on the tankers.

But in order for this to go forward, if we're really going to have this operation run, the United States can accept damage to the ships and can accept damage to our allies.

Where this will get America's attention for real is when those sailors are killed.

The first time those ships are hit, the first time there's a fire on those ships, the first time there's actually dead sailors on those ships.

This is going to be, as much as we're paying attention to this now, you maybe have special sessions here at Breaking Points.

this is going to create a lot more consternation inside of America.

And so that's why I was specific about the threshold.

And General Cain, he said it today, but it's not a surprise that a military, U.S.

military, the leading officer would have the number one threshold be, don't attack my troops.

That's right.

It's really about that breaking through Iran for what it said was it didn't.