Robert Pape

The goal here is fairly straightforward.

What you are seeing is an effort by the United States to run the blockade.

They're trying to break Iran's grip

on the Strait of Hormuz by literally running ships through the blockade.

And then the bet is, and this is the risk, the gamble, the bet is that Iran will not fight back, that Iran will not shoot back.

That's the issue here.

There's a certain lane, that lane is identified, and what you are already seeing is

that Iran yesterday signaled quite clearly with essentially demonstration shots and even warning shots across the bow of our U.S.

Navy ships that it is going to fight back.

So the Trump administration has not lost the bet yet.

Uh, but it is right on the edge of that.

And if in fact, as we're hearing from secretary Hegseth this morning, um, we're going to run that blockade.

there is an extremely good chance that Iran is going to respond.

And then this will mean if they hit just one ship, one U.S.

vessel, I don't mean the South Korean, I don't mean the UAE, if they hit a U.S.

vessel here, that is probably going to trigger what you are hearing Secretary Haig says with all of that other force, the spiral then of escalation.

And that's really what we're on the precipice of here this week.

I'm sorry to say that this is what the escalation trap looks like.

It's not, folks, linear.

So a lot of people think that it should be happening day by day and just simply progressing day by day.