Robert Paston

It's been quite striking in the sort of political sphere that she's started, in a sense, essentially giving you this great accolade of official approval at a time when they're very, very keen to persuade the British people that we need to move economically and actually diplomatically closer to the

to the EU.

So it's an important number, that 8%.

I think it's roughly double the estimate that the Office for Budget Responsibility, the only sort of official work the Office for Budget Responsibility has done on this, I think said the loss was about 4%.

I'm really fascinated just to start with, because you use two different methods, and actually your assessment is the loss is somewhere between 6% and 8%.

But talk me through...

how you set about approaching this assessment and how you came up with that number.

Just also talk me through the other approach that you took, because you didn't just do the top down.

Tell us about the bottom up.

Yes, exactly.

And so just so that people understand the sums of money we are talking about, sums of money that could have contributed to higher wages, could have contributed to...

a lot more money for the NHS through the taxation system for schools.

I mean, my rough and ready calculation is on a £3 trillion economy, we're looking at £240 billion of income.

that has disappeared.

I think we're now going to go to a quick break.

And after the break, I want to ask you, if we had had a more orderly Brexit, would it have been less damaging?

And then secondly, the other question I'm going to ask you is, basically, having lost this 8%, how much of it could we get back?

if we rejoined, would there be a catch up if we rejoined the EU?

So let's come to those in just a couple of minutes after a quick break.

There are actually some pretty common sense explanations for why there would have been this effect.