Robin Brooks

I think we all have a little bit of trauma from 2021 and 2022 when inflation rose so much that

I think we all have a little bit of trauma from 2021 and 2022 when inflation rose so much that

after a decade when inflation was almost written off.

after a decade when inflation was almost written off.

And of course, the Federal Reserve also was slow to recognize that inflation shock.

And of course, the Federal Reserve also was slow to recognize that inflation shock.

But I think a bunch of things are different now.

But I think a bunch of things are different now.

2021, 2022, we were obviously recovering from COVID.

2021, 2022, we were obviously recovering from COVID.

The global economy was gunning.

The global economy was gunning.

That's not at all the situation now.

That's not at all the situation now.

We don't have the kind of fiscal stimulus that we had then.

We don't have the kind of fiscal stimulus that we had then.

And so the global economic picture is genuinely weaker now.

And so the global economic picture is genuinely weaker now.

And if at the end of the day, we're talking about a conflict that is a matter of one month or something like that, then I think the case for transitory is stronger.

And if at the end of the day, we're talking about a conflict that is a matter of one month or something like that, then I think the case for transitory is stronger.