Robin Brooks

Oil prices, which obviously impact prices at the pump, and that's incredibly important for the U.S.

Oil prices, which obviously impact prices at the pump, and that's incredibly important for the U.S.

consumer.

consumer.

You know, oil prices are a function of two things, a physical shortfall in the market now and

You know, oil prices are a function of two things, a physical shortfall in the market now and

So that's the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz or severe encumberment.

So that's the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz or severe encumberment.

And then second of all, there's a big expectations component, which is basically the market guessing how long will it take for the Strait of Hormuz to reopen tomorrow, the week after, the month after, three months from now.

And then second of all, there's a big expectations component, which is basically the market guessing how long will it take for the Strait of Hormuz to reopen tomorrow, the week after, the month after, three months from now.

And today, the market basically said, okay,

And today, the market basically said, okay,

This pronouncement from the president means this conflict is going to be a lot shorter.

This pronouncement from the president means this conflict is going to be a lot shorter.

And so therefore, my expectations component, I'm going to rein that in.

And so therefore, my expectations component, I'm going to rein that in.

And so that's the reason that the market rallied today.

And so that's the reason that the market rallied today.

Yeah, Kai, I think that's a really important point.

Yeah, Kai, I think that's a really important point.