Rogé Karma

Outside of those two sectors, we've seen almost no job growth

And in the very sectors that are normally insulated from downturns to some extent, you think of like professional services, like lawyers and consultants and architects.

You think of tech.

In these white collar professions that usually are able to ride out downturns a lot, we are seeing some of the steepest declines in hiring.

Some of the steepest declines where a lot of these sectors have actually lost jobs over the last few years.

And so what is especially interesting about this is it's hitting the entire economy.

Derek, young people are more pessimistic today and young college graduates are more pessimistic today than just about any time we have on record.

So if you look at four-year moving averages,

These last four years have, again, been the most pessimistic young people have been about their future, about their work prospects than ever.

There was a Gallup poll, Gallup regularly polls

Young people and just the workforce in general about their optimism about being able to find a new job or be able to find work generally.

And in 2022, about 70% of young people said that they were optimistic about finding a job.

Late last year, that dropped to, I believe it was 19%, less than a fifth.

And usually this problem, this pessimism among young people is more concentrated among young people without college degrees.

That makes sense for so much of American history.

It has been young people without degrees who have experienced really terrible, much worse labor market conditions.

But that has actually flipped where now it is young college graduates are actually the most pessimistic.

So it's not only that young people are more pessimistic than ever.

It is also that young college graduates who tend to be less pessimistic are more pessimistic.

And specifically, it seems like this pessimism is concentrated on the job market.