Roger Karma

So I really think that this might be a place where you see the sort of messy realities of immigration politics running up against what really people all across the political spectrum agree is a pretty common sense set of reforms. But that doesn't always mean it makes good politics.

So I really think that this might be a place where you see the sort of messy realities of immigration politics running up against what really people all across the political spectrum agree is a pretty common sense set of reforms. But that doesn't always mean it makes good politics.

So I really think that this might be a place where you see the sort of messy realities of immigration politics running up against what really people all across the political spectrum agree is a pretty common sense set of reforms. But that doesn't always mean it makes good politics.

Well, I went into this because I kept hearing, right, Donald Trump, J.D. Vance, Stephen Miller make these kind of claims that sound kind of intuitive, right? That when immigrants come in, they take jobs from natives, right? There's a sort of econ 101 logic which says... When the supply of any good goes up, including labor, the price of that good, like wages, goes down.

Well, I went into this because I kept hearing, right, Donald Trump, J.D. Vance, Stephen Miller make these kind of claims that sound kind of intuitive, right? That when immigrants come in, they take jobs from natives, right? There's a sort of econ 101 logic which says... When the supply of any good goes up, including labor, the price of that good, like wages, goes down.

Well, I went into this because I kept hearing, right, Donald Trump, J.D. Vance, Stephen Miller make these kind of claims that sound kind of intuitive, right? That when immigrants come in, they take jobs from natives, right? There's a sort of econ 101 logic which says... When the supply of any good goes up, including labor, the price of that good, like wages, goes down.

And so I kept hearing these arguments and thinking, well, like maybe there's something to this. And so let's like actually look at what is happening. And it turns out that the sort of Trump-Vanz view was pretty much the conventional wisdom for most of the 20th century, both among policymakers and economists, until a study came along that sort of shattered the consensus.

And so I kept hearing these arguments and thinking, well, like maybe there's something to this. And so let's like actually look at what is happening. And it turns out that the sort of Trump-Vanz view was pretty much the conventional wisdom for most of the 20th century, both among policymakers and economists, until a study came along that sort of shattered the consensus.

And so I kept hearing these arguments and thinking, well, like maybe there's something to this. And so let's like actually look at what is happening. And it turns out that the sort of Trump-Vanz view was pretty much the conventional wisdom for most of the 20th century, both among policymakers and economists, until a study came along that sort of shattered the consensus.

And so to tell you about the study, I'm going to go back a little bit. So in 1980, Fidel Castro, the president of Cuba, opened up emigration from his country. He lifted the ban on emigration. And what that allowed is for 125,000 Cubans to leave from Mariel Harbor to Miami, Florida, an event that ended up becoming known as the Mariel Boatlift.

And so to tell you about the study, I'm going to go back a little bit. So in 1980, Fidel Castro, the president of Cuba, opened up emigration from his country. He lifted the ban on emigration. And what that allowed is for 125,000 Cubans to leave from Mariel Harbor to Miami, Florida, an event that ended up becoming known as the Mariel Boatlift.

And so to tell you about the study, I'm going to go back a little bit. So in 1980, Fidel Castro, the president of Cuba, opened up emigration from his country. He lifted the ban on emigration. And what that allowed is for 125,000 Cubans to leave from Mariel Harbor to Miami, Florida, an event that ended up becoming known as the Mariel Boatlift.

In just a few short months, Miami's workforce expands by about 25 times as much as the US workforce expands every year because of immigration. This created the perfect conditions for what economists call a natural experiment. It was like this big massive shock that only happened to Miami.

In just a few short months, Miami's workforce expands by about 25 times as much as the US workforce expands every year because of immigration. This created the perfect conditions for what economists call a natural experiment. It was like this big massive shock that only happened to Miami.

In just a few short months, Miami's workforce expands by about 25 times as much as the US workforce expands every year because of immigration. This created the perfect conditions for what economists call a natural experiment. It was like this big massive shock that only happened to Miami.

So what the economist David Card later realized is that you could compare what happened to workers in Miami to workers in other cities that had not experienced the boat lift, track how wages did in both, and then see what actually happened. His view was, look, if there is a negative effect of immigration on wages, Miami in the 1980s is exactly where it should show up.

So what the economist David Card later realized is that you could compare what happened to workers in Miami to workers in other cities that had not experienced the boat lift, track how wages did in both, and then see what actually happened. His view was, look, if there is a negative effect of immigration on wages, Miami in the 1980s is exactly where it should show up.

So what the economist David Card later realized is that you could compare what happened to workers in Miami to workers in other cities that had not experienced the boat lift, track how wages did in both, and then see what actually happened. His view was, look, if there is a negative effect of immigration on wages, Miami in the 1980s is exactly where it should show up.

It's this big unprecedented shock. That makes what he ended up finding so shocking because he ends up finding that this huge influx of immigrants has virtually no effect on both employment or wages of native-born workers in Miami, including those without a college degree.

It's this big unprecedented shock. That makes what he ended up finding so shocking because he ends up finding that this huge influx of immigrants has virtually no effect on both employment or wages of native-born workers in Miami, including those without a college degree.