Roland Oliphant

And it's a framework also for more detailed nuclear negotiations.

There's no more confirmation of that.

It looks to me like the Americans kind of have three options here.

One is a limited deal to reopen the Strait, which would mean the Americans lift their blockade of Iranian ports in exchange for the Iranians ceasing their blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

The drawback of that, of course, is it leaves the main issue, the nuclear issue, unresolved.

He could hang tough and maintain a blockade of Iranian ports, hold out for a comprehensive deal.

But that could take a very long time.

The strait would stay closed and the world economy is going to go into a nosedive.

Or the third option is go back to full-scale war, which he clearly doesn't want to do.

It looks to me at this moment like he's going for the first option, which is a narrow deal, reopen the strait, and then have some talks about the nuclear issue that may get resolved further down the line.

But, of course, that's exactly where we were before this all started a month and a half ago.

I think that meeting, I believe, was already put back because of the war.

And the sense was that Donald Trump wanted to go to Xi Jinping and see Xi Jinping after he'd wrapped this up.

looking strong, looking like he had a victory in his pocket.

It looks like he's going to go there with a bit of an unsatisfactory fudge in his pocket rather than showing up looking incredibly strong.

The Iranian foreign minister is in Beijing today, actually.

The Chinese have put out a statement saying they want an immediate ceasefire right now.

The Americans and the Iranians have to sit down and start talking and that the American-Israeli attack was completely unjustified.

So we know exactly how the message that the Chinese will push onto the Americans.

And that's what Donald Trump is going to have to reckon with when he sits down with Xi Jinping.