Rory Johnston

Africans need to invest.

There are deals to be done and business to be won.

The digitalization of Africa is going to power its growth.

Yeah, so let's transport ourselves back to our last conversation.

We need a time travel machine music, right?

So yeah, the reason that it was such a massive deal, and still remains, I would say, I mean, while we have avoided the doomsday prophecies, it is still by far the largest supply disruption in the market's history.

And for the numbers, for the barrel counting, for Tracy, the total flow through Hormuz prior to the war was roughly 20 million barrels a day.

Now, we knew we weren't going to lose all of that because we knew that we had some offsets.

You know, the Saudi East-West pipeline, the Emirati pipeline to Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman.

But overall, netting for all of those known rerouting options, which again, at the time, we didn't know if they would fully work because they'd never been fully tested.

Yeah.

But they did work, thankfully.

But even netting of those, we were still down roughly 13 million barrels a day of Gulf oil production, excluding Iran, that had been forcibly shut in through the duration of this crisis and is only now beginning to pick back up again.

That's a lot of oil.

That's 13 plus percent of the global supply.

And the reason we thought that prices were going to hit $150 or even $200 a barrel was that when you have a supply shock that large without any more offsets, you end up at demand destructive pricing really, really fast.

And to destroy that level, the depth of that demand, we had never seen that before.

But $200 a barrel seemed like the reasonable price at which that would happen.

Now,

Thankfully, we did not have to destroy that demand.