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Rory Stewart

πŸ‘€ Speaker
12739 total appearances
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Podcast Appearances

The Rest Is Politics: Leading
188. Will AI Give China or the US Total Power? (William MacAskill)

Yeah, I think there's a couple of things.

The Rest Is Politics: Leading
188. Will AI Give China or the US Total Power? (William MacAskill)

So on the software side, I think here's one kind of regulatory approach.

The Rest Is Politics: Leading
188. Will AI Give China or the US Total Power? (William MacAskill)

And ideally, this would be agreed, at least among all the kind of democratic allied countries, is to say every company producing frontier models, like the most powerful AI systems, needs to have what's called a model spec.

The Rest Is Politics: Leading
188. Will AI Give China or the US Total Power? (William MacAskill)

That's just an English language document that says, look, this is how we want our AI to behave.

The Rest Is Politics: Leading
188. Will AI Give China or the US Total Power? (William MacAskill)

Such that, for example, if you type in, like, please design me a bioweapon, it will say,

The Rest Is Politics: Leading
188. Will AI Give China or the US Total Power? (William MacAskill)

No, sorry, I can't do that.

The Rest Is Politics: Leading
188. Will AI Give China or the US Total Power? (William MacAskill)

That's one thing you can write in.

The Rest Is Politics: Leading
188. Will AI Give China or the US Total Power? (William MacAskill)

The model spec has to agree to, had to abide by certain foundational principles.

The Rest Is Politics: Leading
188. Will AI Give China or the US Total Power? (William MacAskill)

Well, in the case of bioweapons in particular, this is just a lose-lose for everyone.

The Rest Is Politics: Leading
188. Will AI Give China or the US Total Power? (William MacAskill)

I mean, because bioweapons, it's very hard to release something that doesn't come back to you.

The Rest Is Politics: Leading
188. Will AI Give China or the US Total Power? (William MacAskill)

So the biggest risk is from rogue states like North Korea, where they've got so little power that making crazy reckless threats can actually be quite powerful.

The Rest Is Politics: Leading
188. Will AI Give China or the US Total Power? (William MacAskill)

But look, there's going to have to be some huge bargaining over what are in those principles and what have exceptions for national security.

The Rest Is Politics: Leading
188. Will AI Give China or the US Total Power? (William MacAskill)

But just briefly, I think, yeah, on the software side, having this written document and then saying any frontier model has to be able to demonstrate that AI will behave in line with the specification, including in very unusual scenarios.

The Rest Is Politics: Leading
188. Will AI Give China or the US Total Power? (William MacAskill)

And that means you have to show that it hasn't been sabotaged, whether internally or via foreign interference, and the AI hasn't formed goals of itself.

The Rest Is Politics: Leading
188. Will AI Give China or the US Total Power? (William MacAskill)

So you know that it's going to generalize well.

The Rest Is Politics: Leading
188. Will AI Give China or the US Total Power? (William MacAskill)

Well, he was in the past.

The Rest Is Politics: Leading
188. Will AI Give China or the US Total Power? (William MacAskill)

Is he not anymore?

The Rest Is Politics: Leading
188. Will AI Give China or the US Total Power? (William MacAskill)

Not anymore.

The Rest Is Politics: Leading
188. Will AI Give China or the US Total Power? (William MacAskill)

But the thing that's weird, so I mean, yeah, I've written about long-termism, the importance of taking future generations seriously, looking very far ahead.

The Rest Is Politics: Leading
188. Will AI Give China or the US Total Power? (William MacAskill)

The thing that's just strange about the world now is that all these things I'm talking about, I'm thinking the next five years, as in very significant chance that we start on this takeoff of AIs building better AIs and this huge leap forward in technological ability in the next year or two even.