Rory Stewart

Well, I mean, so much to talk about here.

But I think first thing is,

Japan really, really matters.

I mean, we'll get on to Portugal in a bit, but Japan is still one of the largest economies in the world.

It is America's big partner in the Indo-Pacific, big balance against China.

And the first thing I think that really strikes me is a reminder of how unpredictable global politics has become.

Because I was following very closely, I was in Japan last year, and I was following very closely a series of Japan experts, both Japanese and foreigners, talking about this election.

And basically, it's been surprise after surprise after surprise.

We got it all wrong.

So the first thing is that when she was running for leadership, as you say, because she'd been defeated twice already.

And she's a woman.

And she's quite an unusual woman from the right.

A lot of the conventional wisdom was hoping that the victor was going to be Koizumi.

Koizumi is the son of the man that you knew.

So he's the Prime Minister's son.

He's in his early 40s.

He's glamorous.

He's quite kind of centrist, more on the left of the LDP.

And actually what happens is that he manages to run against another centrist, split the vote.

He ends up with 27% of the vote.