Rory Sutherland
๐ค SpeakerAppearances Over Time
Podcast Appearances
But you're probably, provided you're still alive as an SMB, you're probably going to be slow to change our Shopify because it's not clear what an AI Shopify would give you.
And it's pretty core to what you do.
So that's why we get back to the same thing.
It's probably much babies being thrown out with the bat water here, which means there should be trades to do, but when?
The other thing that's interesting, and you saw some of the commentary here is this.
This is where it also gets hard.
When companies shift from being valued on revenue multiples, no deduction for loss,
totally ignoring option dilution to all the way to being valued on free cash flow and where they're counting on, you know, where they're basically deducting SPC.
It's just such a huge change that it takes for, I mean, it's such a valuation reset.
If you go into that valuation reset and the market suddenly stops thinking of it as a growth company and starts thinking of, let me compare you to a bank or a utility or an industrial company, it takes a lot of years of flat stock price and reasonable growth before you can be worth 10 or 15 times free cash flow.
And that's what's happening here.
You don't see a bottom until these things are at free cash flow multiples, net of dilution, not SBC, but dilution.
And when that happens, that's your bottom.
What a shitty time.
I mean, you look at it and you go, let's be clear, made the numbers, maybe missed Azure growth by 1%, 37% versus 38%, all within a margin of error.
I think it's a combination of a couple of things.
One is, as you say, some pushback on much of your future RPO, which is future revenue unrecognized, like 40%, 50% of it was from open AI, and suddenly people are questioning
whether that's going to turn into money.
And if that really is the concern, then when opening eye raises a hundred billion dollars, logically some of that jump should come back.
But I think the wider, and you know, and again, they also reiterated the Jason point, which is inference or GPU is money.