Rory Sutherland
๐ค SpeakerAppearances Over Time
Podcast Appearances
No.
And if it's any consolation, I'm in the same place.
It's like, this is, everything's changing.
We got to start, first of all, we got to remind, because we know HR, we got to remind everyone how we got here, right, in the last few sentences.
We went from inference as the new kind of sales and marketing.
We're talking about the new world and the AI spend and the need of the open AI and people like that to get public, raise capital, and continue to invest in inference to continue to grow, which is the happy side of the equation.
And we kind of flipped.
to the sad side of the occasion, which is happening at the same time, which is the SaaS massacre.
As we speak today, it's Tuesday noon, which means you're down 10% on the day on your SaaS stocks and down like 30, 40% in the last four or five weeks.
When you put it that way.
I am looking at my Q4 asset allocation decisions, glad I did some, and in retrospect, missed on others.
So the second shoe to drop here, and maybe they're related, we'll come back to that, is this massive erosion in belief that recurring SaaS revenue has a terminal value is repeatable.
And Jason-
I agree with you 100%.
The growth rates are down, which is clearly true and been clearly true for four or five years.
We're pointing out, and I think you did a great post on this, for the best systems of record, like ServiceNow, I just want to be objective, the churn rates haven't gone up.
So there's no evidence that their revenue is any less durable.
And there's this whole narrative about how it'd be replaced by vibe coding.
But I think, Jason, your post was great on why that's bullshit.
Churn hasn't spiked for a certain class of software companies.