Ryan Kidd

And I don't know, if it's happening during a transition period for U.S.

government, it could be even wilder.

So I would say median bet on 2033-ish, but really care a lot about the impacts of AI.

Front load your concern to pre-2033 scenarios.

And I think that Matt's mentors, we haven't surveyed them, but I think if we were to poll them, we'd get something similar.

Yeah, it's a good question.

I actually think there is plenty of room for this, and here's why.

The mainline kind of meta strategy that the AI safety community seems to be pursuing on the whole, we're talking in terms of funding, in terms of sheer numbers of people and resources deployed, not necessarily in terms of less wrong posts written or something, right?

But in terms of resources deployed is this AI control strategy, which is where basically you build, perhaps it's better called alignment MVP.

which is a term coined by Jan Leakey, former head of super alignment at OpenAI, now co-lead of alignment science at Anthropic.

And alignment MVP is an AI system that is a minimum viable product for accelerating the pace of alignment research differentially over capabilities research such that

we get the right outcome so basically you're getting ai's to do your homework and there's been a lot of debate on this uh there's a very strong camp in in the direction of like this just never will work because as soon as an ai system is strong enough to be useful it's dangerous right i think you know quad code shows this is not the case for at least for software engineering but perhaps for people who think that aligning ai systems requires like serious research taste

they would probably say that this quality code is nowhere near there, right?

Where generally AI systems are nowhere near that level of research taste ability.

Now,

All of the things that you're mentioning that pay off only in 2063 scenarios, presumably they only pay off in that many over that time period.

Not necessarily because of like, I don't know, human challenge trials or something.

Maybe that, maybe that makes a difference if you're interested in like, I don't know, making humans more intelligent with genetic engineering or some of the crazy things that are being tossed around.

But if you're mainly interested in like, oh, this thing is going to take decades of technical work.

Maybe you can compress those decades into a really short period.