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Ryan Knudson

๐Ÿ‘ค Speaker
See mentions of this person in podcasts
2865 total appearances

Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

The Journal.
Insiders Are Cashing In on Prediction Markets

While useful for predicting the future, for some, they're also useful for making money.

The Journal.
Insiders Are Cashing In on Prediction Markets

I have been seeing ads for Kalshi on my social media feeds that advertise it as a side hustle, as a way to pay your rent.

The Journal.
Insiders Are Cashing In on Prediction Markets

Hey, man, what's the best side hustle?

The Journal.
Insiders Are Cashing In on Prediction Markets

Oh, Kalshi.

The Journal.
Insiders Are Cashing In on Prediction Markets

Easy.

The Journal.
Insiders Are Cashing In on Prediction Markets

Kalshi?

The Journal.
Insiders Are Cashing In on Prediction Markets

What's that?

The Journal.
Insiders Are Cashing In on Prediction Markets

Which I found very surprising because I'm like, isn't this ultimately a betting app?

The Journal.
Insiders Are Cashing In on Prediction Markets

But it looks like there are people trading with information that isn't public.

The Journal.
Insiders Are Cashing In on Prediction Markets

Like that person who made those Super Bowl bets.

The Journal.
Insiders Are Cashing In on Prediction Markets

And there are a lot of other examples.

The Journal.
Insiders Are Cashing In on Prediction Markets

Like, someone last year made a bunch of successful bets about things going on inside Google.

The Journal.
Insiders Are Cashing In on Prediction Markets

That account, named Alpha Raccoon, correctly guessed 22 out of the top 23 search terms of the year.

The Journal.
Insiders Are Cashing In on Prediction Markets

They also correctly bet on the exact date that a new Gemini AI model would be released.

The Journal.
Insiders Are Cashing In on Prediction Markets

In the course of just a few days, the person ended up making nearly a million dollars on these and similar bets.

The Journal.
Insiders Are Cashing In on Prediction Markets

Google didn't respond to a request for comment.

The Journal.
Insiders Are Cashing In on Prediction Markets

Some people are profiting off even more consequential events.

The Journal.
Insiders Are Cashing In on Prediction Markets

In June of last year, as tensions flared up between Israel and Iran, and the two countries started firing missiles at each other, someone on Polymarket started placing bets about what was going to happen next.

The Journal.
Insiders Are Cashing In on Prediction Markets

This account ended up making more than $150,000.

The Journal.
Insiders Are Cashing In on Prediction Markets

Last week, Israeli authorities said they arrested several people, including army reservists, in connection with these bets.