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Ryan Knudson

๐Ÿ‘ค Speaker
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2865 total appearances

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Podcast Appearances

The Journal.
Insiders Are Cashing In on Prediction Markets

A lawyer for one of the reservists said in a statement that there were defects in the indictment and improper conduct by the investigative authorities.

The Journal.
Insiders Are Cashing In on Prediction Markets

What kind of questions does it raise if this can happen?

The Journal.
Insiders Are Cashing In on Prediction Markets

Polymarket in particular has pushed this idea.

The Journal.
Insiders Are Cashing In on Prediction Markets

The company's CEO, Shane Copeland, has described his platform as a quote, global truth machine.

The Journal.
Insiders Are Cashing In on Prediction Markets

So this type of betting is happening, but is it even legal?

The Journal.
Insiders Are Cashing In on Prediction Markets

That's next.

The Journal.
Insiders Are Cashing In on Prediction Markets

On Wall Street, insider trading โ€” the use of non-public information to make bets on the stock market โ€” is a big no-no.

The Journal.
Insiders Are Cashing In on Prediction Markets

It's a felony and can lead to fines or prison time.

The Journal.
Insiders Are Cashing In on Prediction Markets

The reason it's illegal is, in large part, because it's not a fair marketplace if someone knows the outcome in advance.

The Journal.
Insiders Are Cashing In on Prediction Markets

Technically, insider trading is also prohibited on prediction markets, which are regulated by the CFTC, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

The Journal.
Insiders Are Cashing In on Prediction Markets

But those CFTC rules were designed for things like wheat and copper futures, and they don't readily carry over to prediction markets.

The Journal.
Insiders Are Cashing In on Prediction Markets

Making matters more complicated is the fact that some state governments have tried to say that calci and polymarket need to follow state gambling rules, something that companies disagree with.

The Journal.
Insiders Are Cashing In on Prediction Markets

As a result, CalSheet and PolyMarket have been operating in something of a gray area, and the two companies have been navigating that in different ways.

The Journal.
Insiders Are Cashing In on Prediction Markets

For instance, a lot of the more out-there bets on PolyMarket are actually not allowed on the US version of its site.

The Journal.
Insiders Are Cashing In on Prediction Markets

A spokeswoman for Polymarket didn't comment on U.S.

The Journal.
Insiders Are Cashing In on Prediction Markets

customers using VPNs to place bets.

The Journal.
Insiders Are Cashing In on Prediction Markets

The other platform, Kalshi, has taken a different approach.

The Journal.
Insiders Are Cashing In on Prediction Markets

It's legal and regulated in the U.S., and CEO Tarek Mansour says insider trading is banned on the platform.

The Journal.
Insiders Are Cashing In on Prediction Markets

Right, so they could potentially see, oh, these bets that you're making may actually be something that you work in or would have inside knowledge of.

The Journal.
Insiders Are Cashing In on Prediction Markets

Mansour also said that new customers go through a vetting process, and that once on the platform, there are surveillance teams that track trading behavior, among other efforts, to police for insider trading.