Ryan Knudson

Still, it can be hard to figure out what's insider trading and what isn't.

Recently, Mansoor went on CNBC and was asked about a theoretical situation in which a dancer for Bad Bunny made bets about the Super Bowl halftime performance.

If people can trade on Bad Bunny's Super Bowl halftime performance, then does Bad Bunny have an obligation to keep that information secret?

Have regulators said anything about looking into this stuff?

Today, the head of the CFTC posted a video on X saying that his agency was the one to regulate prediction markets, not the state's.

A spokesperson for the CFTC said the agency cannot discuss enforcement measures and that investigations can take years to complete.

So in the short term, at least, these kinds of prediction markets, these kinds of bets, and also the fact that insiders theoretically can make these trades, that's going to continue.

What are the potential risks of that?

Or the halftime show, let's say.

Another risk of these types of prediction markets is that people who are the subject of one of these bets could potentially manipulate the outcome, kind of like an athlete betting on a game they're playing in.

For instance, last October, people made bets on PolyMarket that the CEO of Coinbase, Brian Armstrong, would say certain words during the company's earnings call.

And he took notice.

So, I mean, in that instance, Brian Armstrong could just be playing around for fun.

Yeah.

Or, theoretically, he could have seen that bet, put a bunch of money down, and then decided to say what he bet on, basically.

A Coinbase spokeswoman said that the company has policies to quote, prohibit employees, including executives, from participating in prediction markets on any related confidential activity involving the company.

She also said that Armstrong's remarks were made in a quote, lighthearted, offhand way.

So what do you expect is going to happen next with these platforms?

Can we bet on it on Polymarket?

By the way, Caitlin fact-checked this after we spoke, and there actually have been markets about Polymarket itself.