Ryan Petersen

So that's going to lead to shortages, mass inflation, business failures, unemployment, all sorts of second order effects that we can't even predict.

So that's going to lead to shortages, mass inflation, business failures, unemployment, all sorts of second order effects that we can't even predict.

There's that. They also didn't have the great lobbyists that Apple and Nvidia and all those other guys had to keep their products. You know, they got exemptions for smartphones for a lot of other categories. So those aren't small businesses don't produce smartphones, right? They're producing furniture and apparel and home goods and these types of things that are hit with these crazy duties.

There's that. They also didn't have the great lobbyists that Apple and Nvidia and all those other guys had to keep their products. You know, they got exemptions for smartphones for a lot of other categories. So those aren't small businesses don't produce smartphones, right? They're producing furniture and apparel and home goods and these types of things that are hit with these crazy duties.

There's that. They also didn't have the great lobbyists that Apple and Nvidia and all those other guys had to keep their products. You know, they got exemptions for smartphones for a lot of other categories. So those aren't small businesses don't produce smartphones, right? They're producing furniture and apparel and home goods and these types of things that are hit with these crazy duties.

As of April 22nd, so the first container ships arrived yesterday that are subject to the new duties out of China. If it left after midnight on April 9th, It's getting hit with 125% duty on top of whatever pre-existing duty existed before. So that's from China. It's 10% for rest of world on top of whatever existed before. And it takes a while to cross the ocean, right?

As of April 22nd, so the first container ships arrived yesterday that are subject to the new duties out of China. If it left after midnight on April 9th, It's getting hit with 125% duty on top of whatever pre-existing duty existed before. So that's from China. It's 10% for rest of world on top of whatever existed before. And it takes a while to cross the ocean, right?

As of April 22nd, so the first container ships arrived yesterday that are subject to the new duties out of China. If it left after midnight on April 9th, It's getting hit with 125% duty on top of whatever pre-existing duty existed before. So that's from China. It's 10% for rest of world on top of whatever existed before. And it takes a while to cross the ocean, right?

So the first ships arrived last night. And then so going forward, presumably all the ships are now subject to this 125% duty rate. And then, yeah, a lot of products already had a 25% duty. The maximum, I think it was syringes. for whatever reason, are at 245%, but that's pretty rare. It's usually most goods are around 150%. Furniture, like a couch, is 179%.

So the first ships arrived last night. And then so going forward, presumably all the ships are now subject to this 125% duty rate. And then, yeah, a lot of products already had a 25% duty. The maximum, I think it was syringes. for whatever reason, are at 245%, but that's pretty rare. It's usually most goods are around 150%. Furniture, like a couch, is 179%.

So the first ships arrived last night. And then so going forward, presumably all the ships are now subject to this 125% duty rate. And then, yeah, a lot of products already had a 25% duty. The maximum, I think it was syringes. for whatever reason, are at 245%, but that's pretty rare. It's usually most goods are around 150%. Furniture, like a couch, is 179%.

Now, what consumers need to think about, that's applied to the cost of the goods. That doesn't mean prices are going up that much. That's the cost to the company you buy from goes up by, call it 125%. Typically, these companies, if they have a good business, they probably are marking stuff up three times because they got to pay for a lot of overhead.

Now, what consumers need to think about, that's applied to the cost of the goods. That doesn't mean prices are going up that much. That's the cost to the company you buy from goes up by, call it 125%. Typically, these companies, if they have a good business, they probably are marking stuff up three times because they got to pay for a lot of overhead.

Now, what consumers need to think about, that's applied to the cost of the goods. That doesn't mean prices are going up that much. That's the cost to the company you buy from goes up by, call it 125%. Typically, these companies, if they have a good business, they probably are marking stuff up three times because they got to pay for a lot of overhead.

They got to pay for their whole team, their marketing, everything else. So, you know, like if they're marking up 3X and they're 100% duty, just a simple math, your price is going up 30%, somewhere around there. So, yeah, it's definitely going to lead to price hikes. Now, the real inflation, like all the inflation modeling that I've seen people talk about is doing that simple math, right?

They got to pay for their whole team, their marketing, everything else. So, you know, like if they're marking up 3X and they're 100% duty, just a simple math, your price is going up 30%, somewhere around there. So, yeah, it's definitely going to lead to price hikes. Now, the real inflation, like all the inflation modeling that I've seen people talk about is doing that simple math, right?

They got to pay for their whole team, their marketing, everything else. So, you know, like if they're marking up 3X and they're 100% duty, just a simple math, your price is going up 30%, somewhere around there. So, yeah, it's definitely going to lead to price hikes. Now, the real inflation, like all the inflation modeling that I've seen people talk about is doing that simple math, right?

which I'm not that good at math in my head, so somewhere around what I just said. But the real inflation spikes are going to come when there's shortages. Like, ocean freight is down 50%. There's going to be a lot less stuff. Whoever has stuff has cornered the market and can charge whatever they want. And that's where you see kind of like real and kind of crazy hyperinflation.

which I'm not that good at math in my head, so somewhere around what I just said. But the real inflation spikes are going to come when there's shortages. Like, ocean freight is down 50%. There's going to be a lot less stuff. Whoever has stuff has cornered the market and can charge whatever they want. And that's where you see kind of like real and kind of crazy hyperinflation.

which I'm not that good at math in my head, so somewhere around what I just said. But the real inflation spikes are going to come when there's shortages. Like, ocean freight is down 50%. There's going to be a lot less stuff. Whoever has stuff has cornered the market and can charge whatever they want. And that's where you see kind of like real and kind of crazy hyperinflation.