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Ryan Petersen

๐Ÿ‘ค Speaker
2037 total appearances

Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

Prof G Markets
Why Trump Will Back Down on China Tariffs โ€” ft. Ryan Petersen

I don't know if hyperinflation is a technical term. I don't know if we get there. But where you see really high inflation is, hey, you're the only guy that got your furniture in before the tariffs. You charge a lot. The other people didn't bother importing. You know, you can charge whatever price you want if you're that guy.

Prof G Markets
Why Trump Will Back Down on China Tariffs โ€” ft. Ryan Petersen

I don't know if hyperinflation is a technical term. I don't know if we get there. But where you see really high inflation is, hey, you're the only guy that got your furniture in before the tariffs. You charge a lot. The other people didn't bother importing. You know, you can charge whatever price you want if you're that guy.

Prof G Markets
Why Trump Will Back Down on China Tariffs โ€” ft. Ryan Petersen

I don't know if hyperinflation is a technical term. I don't know if we get there. But where you see really high inflation is, hey, you're the only guy that got your furniture in before the tariffs. You charge a lot. The other people didn't bother importing. You know, you can charge whatever price you want if you're that guy.

Prof G Markets
Why Trump Will Back Down on China Tariffs โ€” ft. Ryan Petersen

Yeah, so this depends on the terms of trade. Most trade is done where the importer pays the tariff. Importers pays the duties. U.S. is actually a really interesting thing to cover that I think hasn't gotten enough attention. The United States is one of the few countries, U.S., Canada, and a lot of Western Europe. So it seems to be like a product of Western civilization in some way.

Prof G Markets
Why Trump Will Back Down on China Tariffs โ€” ft. Ryan Petersen

Yeah, so this depends on the terms of trade. Most trade is done where the importer pays the tariff. Importers pays the duties. U.S. is actually a really interesting thing to cover that I think hasn't gotten enough attention. The United States is one of the few countries, U.S., Canada, and a lot of Western Europe. So it seems to be like a product of Western civilization in some way.

Prof G Markets
Why Trump Will Back Down on China Tariffs โ€” ft. Ryan Petersen

Yeah, so this depends on the terms of trade. Most trade is done where the importer pays the tariff. Importers pays the duties. U.S. is actually a really interesting thing to cover that I think hasn't gotten enough attention. The United States is one of the few countries, U.S., Canada, and a lot of Western Europe. So it seems to be like a product of Western civilization in some way.

Prof G Markets
Why Trump Will Back Down on China Tariffs โ€” ft. Ryan Petersen

But these countries allow foreign companies to import goods without registering an entity. Right. It's kind of a weird thing. If you want to import something into China, you've got to go set up a Chinese entity, and then that entity can import goods into China. In the U.S., Chinese companies and any company in the world can just import stuff into our country without creating a local entity.

Prof G Markets
Why Trump Will Back Down on China Tariffs โ€” ft. Ryan Petersen

But these countries allow foreign companies to import goods without registering an entity. Right. It's kind of a weird thing. If you want to import something into China, you've got to go set up a Chinese entity, and then that entity can import goods into China. In the U.S., Chinese companies and any company in the world can just import stuff into our country without creating a local entity.

Prof G Markets
Why Trump Will Back Down on China Tariffs โ€” ft. Ryan Petersen

But these countries allow foreign companies to import goods without registering an entity. Right. It's kind of a weird thing. If you want to import something into China, you've got to go set up a Chinese entity, and then that entity can import goods into China. In the U.S., Chinese companies and any company in the world can just import stuff into our country without creating a local entity.

Prof G Markets
Why Trump Will Back Down on China Tariffs โ€” ft. Ryan Petersen

Now, this creates real problems for enforcement because there's now a huge incentive to lie about the value of your goods, right? If you say you import $100,000 worth of furniture, tell the government it was $10,000, you just cut your duty bill by 90%. And so there's a lot of this fraud now happening. It's escalating like crazy where people just lie.

Prof G Markets
Why Trump Will Back Down on China Tariffs โ€” ft. Ryan Petersen

Now, this creates real problems for enforcement because there's now a huge incentive to lie about the value of your goods, right? If you say you import $100,000 worth of furniture, tell the government it was $10,000, you just cut your duty bill by 90%. And so there's a lot of this fraud now happening. It's escalating like crazy where people just lie.

Prof G Markets
Why Trump Will Back Down on China Tariffs โ€” ft. Ryan Petersen

Now, this creates real problems for enforcement because there's now a huge incentive to lie about the value of your goods, right? If you say you import $100,000 worth of furniture, tell the government it was $10,000, you just cut your duty bill by 90%. And so there's a lot of this fraud now happening. It's escalating like crazy where people just lie.

Prof G Markets
Why Trump Will Back Down on China Tariffs โ€” ft. Ryan Petersen

And then if they get caught, like Customs and Border Protection does not have agents in China to go chase you down. Like you're not those people kind of disappear, create a new shell company, keep going. And I know Scott will love this. Those merchants get to keep their Amazon account forever.

Prof G Markets
Why Trump Will Back Down on China Tariffs โ€” ft. Ryan Petersen

And then if they get caught, like Customs and Border Protection does not have agents in China to go chase you down. Like you're not those people kind of disappear, create a new shell company, keep going. And I know Scott will love this. Those merchants get to keep their Amazon account forever.

Prof G Markets
Why Trump Will Back Down on China Tariffs โ€” ft. Ryan Petersen

And then if they get caught, like Customs and Border Protection does not have agents in China to go chase you down. Like you're not those people kind of disappear, create a new shell company, keep going. And I know Scott will love this. Those merchants get to keep their Amazon account forever.

Prof G Markets
Why Trump Will Back Down on China Tariffs โ€” ft. Ryan Petersen

with all of its product listings and reviews, and now a new shell company keeps importing the goods, keeps selling. So Amazon merchants, 60% of them are these Chinese companies where they import. There's no American company at all. Chinese company imports, sells online on Amazon, gets busted for tariffs, spins up a new shell company, just keeps going.

Prof G Markets
Why Trump Will Back Down on China Tariffs โ€” ft. Ryan Petersen

with all of its product listings and reviews, and now a new shell company keeps importing the goods, keeps selling. So Amazon merchants, 60% of them are these Chinese companies where they import. There's no American company at all. Chinese company imports, sells online on Amazon, gets busted for tariffs, spins up a new shell company, just keeps going.

Prof G Markets
Why Trump Will Back Down on China Tariffs โ€” ft. Ryan Petersen

with all of its product listings and reviews, and now a new shell company keeps importing the goods, keeps selling. So Amazon merchants, 60% of them are these Chinese companies where they import. There's no American company at all. Chinese company imports, sells online on Amazon, gets busted for tariffs, spins up a new shell company, just keeps going.

Prof G Markets
Why Trump Will Back Down on China Tariffs โ€” ft. Ryan Petersen

So that's something I'm surprised that they haven't addressed in all of this. They've kind of taken this 40,000-foot macro view of the tariffs with crazy... kind of general assumptions that we've heard about Penguin Island and everything, but they miss the micro, like, here's the real fraud that's happening. Fix that.

Prof G Markets
Why Trump Will Back Down on China Tariffs โ€” ft. Ryan Petersen

So that's something I'm surprised that they haven't addressed in all of this. They've kind of taken this 40,000-foot macro view of the tariffs with crazy... kind of general assumptions that we've heard about Penguin Island and everything, but they miss the micro, like, here's the real fraud that's happening. Fix that.