Sam Taube
speaker
282 appearances
3 recordings
1 series
first heard Jan 2026
last heard 3 Sep
Sam Taube’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 3 in all, peaking in Jan 2026 with 2.
Appearances
Always good to be here.
These are some of the highest long term yields we've seen in several years.
The 10 year is up to uh, I think the highest rate it's been since at least the beginning of 2025, and the 30 year is up to an even longer term high.
And yields actually spiked to even more on the morning of this recording.
What that means is that investors expect rates to stay high for the long term because they expect inflation to stay high for the long term.
Or because they're worried about the government carrying a heavy debt burden, and frankly, it's kind of both of those.
It's both of those and then also inflation expectations.
Markets now strongly expect the Fed to raise rates at the September meeting, which is boosting short-term rates like the three-month, six-month, and one-year T-bill, because those kind of reflect near-term uh interest rate expectations.
And then when it comes to longer-term yields, Fed share Kevin Warsh recently made some comments that have kind of spooked investors.
Into thinking that high inflation may just kind of be the status quo for the time being.
And on top of that, the national debt recently hit this big spooky number, $40 trillion.
And the government's swelling debt is fueling concerns about its creditworthiness, which is also influencing investors to demand higher yields on government bonds.
So there's a lot of different factors going into this.
So the good news for savers, for new retirees, and others who are looking to buy bonds right now for income is that higher yields mean that you earn more money.
The bad news is that when bond yields go up, bond prices go down.
They inherently move in opposite directions.
So if you own a lot of bonds, you're sitting on some losses because of this.
Again, short-term bond yields like the Treasury bills reflect short-term interest rate expectations, whereas long-term yields like the yields on the 10-year and 30-year reflect longer-term expectations.
The three-month, six-month, and one-year bills, they tend to move in line with investors' expectations of where interest rates are going to go in the very near future.
And yields on those have jumped in the last week because it's looking increasing.
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