Sarah Paine

And that generation transformed Japan into the first and the only non-Western modern power in that period.

And the second great generation of modern Japanese is, of course, the post-war generation that transformed their country into a global powerhouse.

And I'm going to ask a question, or try to both ask and answer it, is what caused the reversal of the balance of power in Asia in the period that I'm going to talk to you about it?

And it's a really consequential question about why these tectonic changes take place in the international system

Because historically, China had always been the dominant civilization in Asia from time immemorial.

And then upstart Japan winds up doing things, or China winds up doing things, and it reverses and has profound effects.

And it's a very relevant question in our own day when there's an ongoing reversal of the reversal, when China's on the comeback and threatening to put Japan back in its box.

So it's really interesting to ask why, how do these things happen?

So that's the background of what I'm talking about.

But if you think about China back in the day before Japan trounced China in the first Sino-Japanese War, Chinese believed that there's only one civilization.

theirs, naturally.

And they believed that, of course, it's the best because there's only one that makes it easier to be the best.

But in addition, if you think about all levels of human endeavor, Chinese institutions were imitated throughout the East.

It's the richest country on the planet for many, many years.

Incredible achievements in science, philosophy, you name it.

And also there was another assumption that people didn't make a U-turn on the path to civilization.

It's always forward towards Chinese civilization.

Well, Japan, by westernizing, is taking a U-turn on the road to civilization.

It's dumping Chinese civilization.

And so already we got at least two civilizations out there.