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Dwarkesh Podcast

Sarah Paine: How Imperial Japan Defeated Tsarist Russia & Qing China

25 Jul 2025

Transcription

Full Episode

0.52 - 23.153 Sarah Paine

So I'm going to talk to you today about one of the two great generations in modern Japanese history. And they are the Meiji generation, named after the Meiji emperor here. And that generation transformed Japan into the first and the only non-Western modern power in that period.

0

23.133 - 43.415 Sarah Paine

And the second great generation of modern Japanese is, of course, the post-war generation that transformed their country into a global powerhouse. And I'm going to ask a question, or try to both ask and answer it, is what caused the reversal of the balance of power in Asia in the period that I'm going to talk to you about it?

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43.815 - 69.119 Sarah Paine

And it's a really consequential question about why these tectonic changes take place in the international system Because historically, China had always been the dominant civilization in Asia from time immemorial. And then upstart Japan winds up doing things, or China winds up doing things, and it reverses and has profound effects.

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69.5 - 87.601 Sarah Paine

And it's a very relevant question in our own day when there's an ongoing reversal of the reversal, when China's on the comeback and threatening to put Japan back in its box. So it's really interesting to ask why, how do these things happen? So that's the background of what I'm talking about.

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87.901 - 104.304 Sarah Paine

But if you think about China back in the day before Japan trounced China in the first Sino-Japanese War, Chinese believed that there's only one civilization. theirs, naturally. And they believed that, of course, it's the best because there's only one that makes it easier to be the best.

104.324 - 132.281 Sarah Paine

But in addition, if you think about all levels of human endeavor, Chinese institutions were imitated throughout the East. It's the richest country on the planet for many, many years. Incredible achievements in science, philosophy, you name it. And also there was another assumption that people didn't make a U-turn on the path to civilization. It's always forward towards Chinese civilization.

132.862 - 160.345 Sarah Paine

Well, Japan, by westernizing, is taking a U-turn on the road to civilization. It's dumping Chinese civilization. And so already we got at least two civilizations out there. And then when it trances China in a war, It suggests to the Chinese that they can't be better than the Japanese at the military things, at least. And this effect on China was far more devastating than the opium wars.

160.365 - 181.222 Sarah Paine

The Chinese could write those off, the losses there. A bunch of crazy Europeans, they're irrelevant to us. But when Japan did this, it basically detonated the Confucian underpinnings of Chinese civilization. And the Chinese have been trying to find a suitable replacement ever since. For a while, they thought it was communism. Maybe they still do. So I'm going to ask a question.

181.282 - 201.837 Sarah Paine

Why did the Asian balance of power change? And now, spoiler alert, I'm going to give the answer. And I'm going to say clever decisions in Tokyo. But I'm going to use a particular framework to answer this that I have found really useful. And I learned it from teaching at the Naval War College where students are required to have a counterargument in papers.

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