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Sarah Paine

๐Ÿ‘ค Speaker
8864 total appearances

Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine: How Imperial Japan Defeated Tsarist Russia & Qing China

What happens is Russia keeps losing the battles, but it has an orderly retreat moving ever further northward, extending Japanese lines.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine: How Imperial Japan Defeated Tsarist Russia & Qing China

So that's an overview of how the war goes.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine: How Imperial Japan Defeated Tsarist Russia & Qing China

So you can orient the rest of the conversation here.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine: How Imperial Japan Defeated Tsarist Russia & Qing China

If you look at the invasion routes that Japan uses in the first Sino-Japanese War and the Russo-Japanese War, they're remarkably similar because guess what?

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine: How Imperial Japan Defeated Tsarist Russia & Qing China

The geography hasn't changed.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine: How Imperial Japan Defeated Tsarist Russia & Qing China

And so if you want to send an army in to desired locations, it may well have to take similar routes.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine: How Imperial Japan Defeated Tsarist Russia & Qing China

And the British, the French, the Americans, Japanese had studied very carefully the first Sona Japanese War.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine: How Imperial Japan Defeated Tsarist Russia & Qing China

But apparently the Russians didn't waste their time on it because here's what's up.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine: How Imperial Japan Defeated Tsarist Russia & Qing China

If the Russians had studied it carefully, they would have known the Yalu River is lethal to send an army across that if there's an army waiting for it on the other side.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine: How Imperial Japan Defeated Tsarist Russia & Qing China

The Russians also would have realized that this Feng Shui Pass and the Mo Tian Pass, Mo Tian means literally scratch the skies,

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine: How Imperial Japan Defeated Tsarist Russia & Qing China

that if you're prepared there, you're going to ruin an army coming through.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine: How Imperial Japan Defeated Tsarist Russia & Qing China

Of course, the Russians aren't prepared there.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine: How Imperial Japan Defeated Tsarist Russia & Qing China

And then they also would have known it, the Liaodong Peninsula, it has a very narrow neck.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine: How Imperial Japan Defeated Tsarist Russia & Qing China

If you cut the narrow neck, which is right where Dalny is, a big commercial port, you're going to get that port, which is connected to the railway, and you're going to be able to supply your armies going right up north.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine: How Imperial Japan Defeated Tsarist Russia & Qing China

In addition, it means you're probably going to get Port Arthur, the big naval base as well, because it's basically been turned into an island and you'll probably get that.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine: How Imperial Japan Defeated Tsarist Russia & Qing China

So the Russians should have figured out that they, but they didn't.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine: How Imperial Japan Defeated Tsarist Russia & Qing China

The Japanese literally blast through these locations.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine: How Imperial Japan Defeated Tsarist Russia & Qing China

And here's the key to reducing the fleet in Port Arthur.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine: How Imperial Japan Defeated Tsarist Russia & Qing China

Since the Russians wouldn't sortie, they're just sticking in harbor.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine: How Imperial Japan Defeated Tsarist Russia & Qing China

So the Japanese have to figure out a way to do it.