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Sarah Paine

๐Ÿ‘ค Speaker
8864 total appearances

Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine: How Imperial Japan Defeated Tsarist Russia & Qing China

But for incompetent Russian strategy, if the Russians had run one more battle against the Japanese, their Japanese supply lines would have collapsed.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine: How Imperial Japan Defeated Tsarist Russia & Qing China

And it's unclear how far down the Liaodong Peninsula they would have had to retreat.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine: How Imperial Japan Defeated Tsarist Russia & Qing China

So this is when Japan's war termination plan goes into effect.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine: How Imperial Japan Defeated Tsarist Russia & Qing China

The Japanese realized from the very beginning that they had a high risk, high reward strategy.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine: How Imperial Japan Defeated Tsarist Russia & Qing China

And in contrast to World War II, they had a really carefully prepared exit strategy.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine: How Imperial Japan Defeated Tsarist Russia & Qing China

So when Prime Minister Ito Hirabumi is convening the cabinet and they're gonna make the decision to fire the first shots in this war, he is already lining up a Harvard grad

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine: How Imperial Japan Defeated Tsarist Russia & Qing China

I hear Viscount Caneco, who was an acquaintance of President Theodore Roosevelt of the United States, then president.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine: How Imperial Japan Defeated Tsarist Russia & Qing China

And what they want is to have Viscount Caneco work on getting Roosevelt ready to do mediation at the end of this war.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine: How Imperial Japan Defeated Tsarist Russia & Qing China

And the peace treaty is going to be held in, negotiations are going to be held in Portsmouth, New Hampshire, negotiated by another Harvard alumnus, Baron Komura.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine: How Imperial Japan Defeated Tsarist Russia & Qing China

who's going to do all of that.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine: How Imperial Japan Defeated Tsarist Russia & Qing China

Meanwhile, Ito sends his son-in-law, who's a diet member, but also a graduate of Cambridge University, off to Britain to keep the Anglo-Japanese alliance solid.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine: How Imperial Japan Defeated Tsarist Russia & Qing China

So the Japanese are very aware that you've got to have a way out of this thing.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine: How Imperial Japan Defeated Tsarist Russia & Qing China

So...

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine: How Imperial Japan Defeated Tsarist Russia & Qing China

It's in the Battle of Mukden that Field Marshal Yamagata decides it's time to call the American card at this moment.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine: How Imperial Japan Defeated Tsarist Russia & Qing China

He said, look, the enemy is never going to request peace unless we have invaded Moscow or St.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine: How Imperial Japan Defeated Tsarist Russia & Qing China

Petersburg, something he knows to be impossible.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine: How Imperial Japan Defeated Tsarist Russia & Qing China

And he doesn't assess me.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine: How Imperial Japan Defeated Tsarist Russia & Qing China

So look, the enemy still has powerful forces in its home country.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine: How Imperial Japan Defeated Tsarist Russia & Qing China

We have already exhausted ours.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine: How Imperial Japan Defeated Tsarist Russia & Qing China

Second, while the enemy still does not run out of officers, we have lost a great number since the opening of the war and cannot easily replace them.