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Sarah Paine

๐Ÿ‘ค Speaker
8864 total appearances

Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine: How Imperial Japan Defeated Tsarist Russia & Qing China

That's not gonna go well for you.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine: How Imperial Japan Defeated Tsarist Russia & Qing China

And the Japanese know because now that Port Arthur falls while this expedition is taking place, so then the purpose of the expedition is no longer there.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine: How Imperial Japan Defeated Tsarist Russia & Qing China

They should have taken a U-turn and go home, but no, no, no, they're going to keep on going.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine: How Imperial Japan Defeated Tsarist Russia & Qing China

So there is only one other possible location for them, which is an inferior base up at Vladivostok.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine: How Imperial Japan Defeated Tsarist Russia & Qing China

So the Japanese know there are three ways to get to Vladivostok if you're coming up from the south.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine: How Imperial Japan Defeated Tsarist Russia & Qing China

You're either going to go the long, long way around through the Perus Strait, and it's awfully narrow, and it's the long way around.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine: How Imperial Japan Defeated Tsarist Russia & Qing China

You can go through the Sugaru Strait, which is a little wider, but it goes by a bunch of big Japanese army bases and also a very large port of Hakodate.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine: How Imperial Japan Defeated Tsarist Russia & Qing China

You want to do that, that's kind of risky.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine: How Imperial Japan Defeated Tsarist Russia & Qing China

So the short way is to go through the Korea Strait, which is broken in the middle by the Tsushima Islands.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine: How Imperial Japan Defeated Tsarist Russia & Qing China

And the Tsushima Strait is to the east.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine: How Imperial Japan Defeated Tsarist Russia & Qing China

It's 20 to 25 miles wide at its narrowest point.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine: How Imperial Japan Defeated Tsarist Russia & Qing China

And that's the short way, which is what the Russians take.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine: How Imperial Japan Defeated Tsarist Russia & Qing China

And guess what?

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine: How Imperial Japan Defeated Tsarist Russia & Qing China

They have a welcoming party there of all these newly refitted Japanese ships that know exactly what they're up to.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine: How Imperial Japan Defeated Tsarist Russia & Qing China

And the Battle of Tsushima is one of the most...

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine: How Imperial Japan Defeated Tsarist Russia & Qing China

lopsided naval battles in human history the Japanese just either sink or commandeer basically the entire fleet proving the Russians had no idea of how to do naval strategy that the Navy had been a product of a bunch of aristocrats who the one who ran it was a guy who was known for what was it fast women and slow ships it did not work out well for them

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine: How Imperial Japan Defeated Tsarist Russia & Qing China

All right, while the negotiations are being held on whether to hold negotiations, President Roosevelt suggested to the Japanese that they try to take Sakhalin Island.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine: How Imperial Japan Defeated Tsarist Russia & Qing China

You can see the tip end of the Japanese home island, Hokkaido, and then there's Sakhalin.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine: How Imperial Japan Defeated Tsarist Russia & Qing China

Why?

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine: How Imperial Japan Defeated Tsarist Russia & Qing China

Because it's much more valuable to the Russians than the Japanese, and it would be a good trade-back item in the peace negotiations.