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Sarah Paine

๐Ÿ‘ค Speaker
8864 total appearances

Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine: How Imperial Japan Defeated Tsarist Russia & Qing China

Russians are known to be hard drinkers, right?

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine: How Imperial Japan Defeated Tsarist Russia & Qing China

And they're also known for being brutal, right?

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine: How Imperial Japan Defeated Tsarist Russia & Qing China

Unclear whether it's going to collapse.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine: How Imperial Japan Defeated Tsarist Russia & Qing China

That's a good argument.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine: How Imperial Japan Defeated Tsarist Russia & Qing China

He might be right.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine: How Imperial Japan Defeated Tsarist Russia & Qing China

This is why I think we'll never get definitive answers because you don't have to be in Nicholas II's brain, right?

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine: How Imperial Japan Defeated Tsarist Russia & Qing China

It's an autocracy.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine: How Imperial Japan Defeated Tsarist Russia & Qing China

What he decides matters.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine: How Imperial Japan Defeated Tsarist Russia & Qing China

I dare say if he had been Peter the Great, the guy who tortured his only son to death...

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine: How Imperial Japan Defeated Tsarist Russia & Qing China

and suffered numerous setbacks, I doubt that he would have had any problems dealing with rioting Russians.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine: How Imperial Japan Defeated Tsarist Russia & Qing China

He would have figured out who are loyal units and then just blow away whatever's getting in his way.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine: How Imperial Japan Defeated Tsarist Russia & Qing China

And he would have done his initial, his next battle.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine: How Imperial Japan Defeated Tsarist Russia & Qing China

And then when he won that battle, the Russian revolution would have gone away because they would have gone, see, we did it.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine: How Imperial Japan Defeated Tsarist Russia & Qing China

We got these people.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine: How Imperial Japan Defeated Tsarist Russia & Qing China

So, but it's, Kotkin's argument is a very good one.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine: How Imperial Japan Defeated Tsarist Russia & Qing China

But it's, to me, it's Nicholas Sassen's incompetent leadership is the bigger thing.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine: How Imperial Japan Defeated Tsarist Russia & Qing China

And then you're arguing about how important is the rebellion and how deep rooted it is.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine: How Imperial Japan Defeated Tsarist Russia & Qing China

And you'll never know, right, what this...

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine: How Imperial Japan Defeated Tsarist Russia & Qing China

Kotkin could be absolutely right.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine: How Imperial Japan Defeated Tsarist Russia & Qing China

And I think this is a reason, one of the reasons I gave the counter-argument is to get used to understanding ambiguity and appreciating that other people could be right and you may not know.