Sarah Paine

And meanwhile, Pakistan, in contrast, is just being this welcoming host.

So the United States is going, India and Pakistan is better.

And it makes really bad trend lines for India because in the 1962 war, the United States supported India.

In the 1965 war, it's neutral.

In the 1971 war, it supports Pakistan.

That's not great.

And then India's own very heavy-handed treatment of solutions to the insurgency of Kashmir doesn't make that thing go away.

It just gets worse.

So they have their own problems.

China also has its problems with the interaction.

It's complicated.

So on the one hand, on the Sino-Indian warrant, absolutely, China gets the territory.

But at what cost?

You've got this permanent enemy forever.

And as opposed to teaming up with them, if they teamed up, they actually would have had incredible leverage for what the global order is going to look like.

But that's just not to be.

And moreover, if you look at the 1971 war, after the United States won't help with China, India's going, OK, I think we need nuclear weapons because then we'll be able to protect ourselves against China.

And after that war, when Pakistan's lost over half its population, it has to deal with Indian population and territorial just overwhelming superiority there.

The Pakistanis go, I think we need nuclear weapons in order to solve this problem.

So it's going to be proliferation all over the place.