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Sarah Paine

๐Ÿ‘ค Speaker
8864 total appearances

Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine โ€“ Why Russia Lost the Cold War

That's Pentagonese for large military systems.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine โ€“ Why Russia Lost the Cold War

But anyway, it's a nuclear-powered, nuclear-armed submarine.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine โ€“ Why Russia Lost the Cold War

They say that this is the item.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine โ€“ Why Russia Lost the Cold War

The way deterrence theory worked during the Cold War, and I believe now as well, is in order to deter the other side, you have to have a reliable second strike capability.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine โ€“ Why Russia Lost the Cold War

So if they thought of lobbing a nuke at you, they would be guaranteed that you would have the second strike to lob a nuke back.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine โ€“ Why Russia Lost the Cold War

Therefore, they're never going to lob the first nuke.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine โ€“ Why Russia Lost the Cold War

When Jimmy Carter became president, he was a graduate of Annapolis and also a submariner.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine โ€“ Why Russia Lost the Cold War

The United States began a much more aggressive deployment of its fleet, and that's continued even more so under Reagan, where we're taking our submarines and we're targeting Soviet submarines in their home water bastions.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine โ€“ Why Russia Lost the Cold War

So the Soviets are thinking that we're going to be able to destroy their strike and strike capability on our first strike, and they're having a heart attack.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine โ€“ Why Russia Lost the Cold War

So here you have Valery Boldin, a longtime aide to Gorbachev, saying, look...

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine โ€“ Why Russia Lost the Cold War

the most powerful strength of the United States is the naval fleet, and we aren't going to get one, or our geography actually isn't set up to use one the way the United States can.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine โ€“ Why Russia Lost the Cold War

And then you have Marshal Yazov saying, for the Americans, the main means of atomic attack is the fleet.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine โ€“ Why Russia Lost the Cold War

So when you get Marshal Akhmeyev, who's visiting the United States in 1987, at the end of the Cold War, he will kill himself, but he's still around in 87, and he's telling his American hosts,

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine โ€“ Why Russia Lost the Cold War

You know where our submarines are, but we don't know where yours are.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine โ€“ Why Russia Lost the Cold War

It's destabilizing you.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine โ€“ Why Russia Lost the Cold War

You, the United States Navy, are the problem.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine โ€“ Why Russia Lost the Cold War

Go Navy.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine โ€“ Why Russia Lost the Cold War

And here's this host, Admiral Trost, who's going, yeah, the inability of the Soviet Union to maintain a strong defensive capability led to the demise of the Soviet Union and to the removal of the Soviets as a major threat to us.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine โ€“ Why Russia Lost the Cold War

So, you can make a perfectly good argument to say the Soviet Union could not counter technologically or financially the U.S.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine โ€“ Why Russia Lost the Cold War

submarine threat to its retaliatory nuclear forces, so war termination was the only thing it could do.