Sarah Paine

That's this Belt Road Initiative is peeling away the former Russian sphere of influence in Central Asia.

And Putin is doing this hot war gambit when Russia's weak and China is strong, making it particularly damaging.

And you go, well, why would it matter?

Well, Russia has precisely, Siberia has precisely the resources that China now needs and covets and wants to have them contiguous so other people can't mess with them.

And in particularly, they want water because they've blown through their water table in North China.

Lake Baikal has over 20% of the world's surface freshwater.

So if you want a quick fix, it's the best one.

And China is known for big water projects.

They've

been damming the Mekong and the Yangtze.

They've done massive water projects.

So that may be in Russia's future.

Who knows?

And Xi Jinping now holds all of the cards.

China has nine times the population, nine times the GMP of Russia, and their per capita GMPs are converging.

Not good news for Putin.

So I think the question isn't whether this

bromance is going to last forever, but rather when it's going to end.

When is Xi Jinping going to decide he's got the right amount of leverage to get whatever it is he wants?

And I think what's going on now illustrates the perils of getting your primary adversary wrong.