Satya Nadella

speaker

1,525 appearances 13 recordings 8 series first heard Feb 2025 last heard 1 Jul

Satya Nadella’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 12 in all, peaking in Jan 2026 with 7.

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Dwarkesh Podcast · Satya Nadella — Microsoft’s AGI plan & quantum breakthrough · 19 Feb 2025 podcast

Not just for training, but we now know for test time.

And as I said, test time, like here's an interesting thing.

When you think of an AI agent, it turns out the AI agents is going to exponentially increase compute usage because you now are not even bound by just one human invoking a program.

It's

But one human invoking programs that invoke lots more programs.

And so that's going to create massive, massive demand and scale for compute infrastructure.

So our hyperscale business, Azure business, I think that's like, and other hyperscalers, I think that's a big thing.

Then after that, it becomes a little fuzzy because you could sort of say, hey, there is a winner-take-all model.

I just don't see it, because this, by the way, is the other thing I've learned, is being very good at understanding what are winner-take-all markets and what are not winner-take-all markets is, in some sense, everything.

Like, I remember even in the early days when I was getting into Azure, I mean, Amazon had a very significant lead, and people would come to me, and investors would come to me and say, oh, it's game over, you'll never make it, Amazon's, it's winner-take-all.

And having competed against Oracle and IBM in client-server, I knew that, look, the buyers will not tolerate winner-take-all, right?

Structurally, hyperscale will never be a winner-take-all because buyers are smart.

Consumer markets sometimes can be winner-take-all, but anything where the buyer is a corporation, an enterprise, an IT department, they will want multiple suppliers.

And so you gotta be one of the multiple suppliers.

And so that I think is what'll happen even in the model side.

So there will be open source, there will be a governor, just like on Windows.

One of the big lessons learned for me was if you have a closed source operating system,

there will be a complement to it, which will be open source.

And so to some degree, that's a real check on what happens.

And so I think in models, there is one dimension of maybe there will be a few closed source.

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