Satya Nadella on: Why he doesn’t believe in AGI but does believe in 10% economic growth; Microsoft’s new topological qubit breakthrough and gaming world models;Whether Office commoditizes LLMs or the other way around. Watch on Youtube; listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.----------SponsorsScale partners with major AI labs like Meta, Google Deepmind, and OpenAI. Through Scale’s Data Foundry, labs get access to high-quality data to fuel post-training, including advanced reasoning capabilities. If you’re an AI researcher or engineer, learn about how Scale’s Data Foundry and research lab, SEAL, can help you go beyond the current frontier at scale.com/dwarkeshLinear's project management tools have become the default choice for product teams at companies like Ramp, CashApp, OpenAI, and Scale. These teams use Linear so they can stay close to their products and move fast. If you’re curious why so many companies are making the switch, visit linear.app/dwarkeshTo sponsor a future episode, visit dwarkeshpatel.com/p/advertise.----------Timestamps(0:00:00) - Intro(0:05:04) - AI won't be winner-take-all(0:15:18) - World economy growing by 10%(0:21:39) - Decreasing price of intelligence(0:30:19) - Quantum breakthrough(0:42:51) - How Muse will change gaming(0:49:51) - Legal barriers to AI(0:55:46) - Getting AGI safety right(1:04:59) - 34 years at Microsoft(1:10:46) - Does Satya Nadella believe in AGI? Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at www.dwarkesh.com/subscribe
Full Episode
Satya, thank you so much for coming on the podcast. So just in a second, we're going to get to the two breakthroughs that Microsoft has just made. And congratulations, same day in nature. Majorana, Xero, Chip, which we have in front of us right here, and also the world, human action models. But can we just continue the conversation we were having a second ago?
So you were describing the ways in which the things you were seeing in the 80s and 90s, you're seeing them happen again.
Yeah, I mean, the thing that... It's exciting for me, Dwarkesh. First of all, it's fantastic to be on your podcast. I'm a big listener and it's just fun to be... And I love the way that you do these interviews and the broad topics that you explore. It sort of, to me, reminds me a little bit of my, I'd say, first few years even in the tech industry starting in the 90s, where...
there was like real debate about whether it's going to be RISC or CISC or, hey, are we really going to be able to build servers using even x86 or, you know, when I joined Microsoft, that was the, you know, in the beginning of what was Windows NT. So everything from the core silicon platform to the operating system, to the app tier, that full stack, I mean, the entire thing is being litigated.
And that's, I think, perhaps, you know, you could say cloud did a bunch of that and obviously distributed computing and cloud did change client server. The web changed massively. But this does feel a little more like maybe more full stack than even the past that at least I've been involved in.
When you think about what actually... which decisions ended up being the long-term winners in the 80s and 90s and which ones didn't. And especially when you think about, you know, you were at Sun Microsystems, they had an interesting experience with the 90s.com bubble.
People talk about this data center build out as being a bubble, but at the same time, we have the internet today as a result of what was built out then. What are the lessons about what will stand the test of time? What is an inherent secular trend? What is just ephemeral? What stands out?
Yeah, it's actually, it's interesting. I mean, I think the... If I sort of go back even at least the four big transformations that I've been part of, right, if you say the client and the client server, so that's the birth of the graphical user interface and the x86 architecture basically even allowing us to build servers. It was very clear to me. I remember going to what was PDC in 91.
In fact, I was at Sun at that time. And in 91, I went to Moscone, went to basically that's when Microsoft first described Win32 interface. And I said, it was pretty clear to me what was going to happen where the server was also going to be an x86 thing, right? So that when you have the scale advantages accruing to something. That's the secular bet you have to place, right?
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