Scott Alexander (author/host)

So most of this reduces to, I predict the war will go well because I'm going to win it for us, which is less of a prophecy than a promise.

The ransom of the Duke of Orleans is an extra improbability, though.

He'd been in captivity for a long time, and prisoners often die.

Back to the text.

And second, while we can't exactly expect medieval Frenchmen to carefully write down all their predictions as soon as they make them when our own government doesn't, we have the major problem that all these predictions are written down after they occurred, which means that the good brother's memory might not be reliable.

Now, we do have other people quoting other, simpler versions of the same prophecies.

End quote.

Or, quote, End quote.

But again, they're all recorded in the trial of rehabilitation, after that has happened.

Wouldn't it be wonderful if Joan made some predictions in advance, recorded by her enemies, all carefully recorded in a file drawer in Rouen, so we could see how accurate she was?

Yeah, she did.

Joan, before seven years be passed, the English will lose a greater gauge than they had at Orléans, and they will lose all in France.

And the English will even suffer a greater loss than they ever had in France, and this will be by a great victory which God will send to the French.

Footnote, the specific word by is found in Joan of Arc, by herself and her witnesses, but absent in my complete translation of The Trial of Joan of Arc.

It changes the meaning significantly, and I'm guessing the more recent translation is better, but I don't actually know.

Back to the text, the quote continues.

Question, how do you know that?

Joan, I know it well by a revelation which has been made to me, and it will happen before seven years, and I should be very vexed should it be so long deferred.

I know it as well as I know that you were there in front of me.

Question, when will this happen?