Scott Alexander (author/host)

Joan, I know not the day nor the hour.

Question, in what year will it happen?

Joan, that too you shall not have, but I would that it be before St.

John's Day.

End quote.

This is a pretty good prediction, but it's not perfect.

It's written down in early 1431 and presumably made in early 1431 too, by the date of the trial.

The relevant dates for her prediction.

May 1435, French win a small-scale victory at Garbaroy, killing a leading English general.

September 1435, Bedford dies of natural causes and the Burgundians switch side again.

April 1436, French take Paris with support from inside the city.

1441.

The last English stronghold within the Ile-de-France falls.

1453.

Every English stronghold in France falls except the debatably French Calais.

1558.

Calais falls.

It's true that, before seven years be passed, the French would win a great victory, talking the Burgundians into switching sides and the fall of Paris both count.

And it's arguable that the English would suffer a greater loss than they ever had in France, since when Henry V died his brother Bedford could replace him,

while there was no qualified replacement for Bedford.