Scott Alexander (author/host)

On the other hand, he died during a truce in the war, and I doubt it was the result of a great victory, in quotes.

The English lost more men at Partey than Gerbois, so Joan certainly couldn't claim it was a greater loss than Partey, though see footnote 86.

the one about the ransom of the Duke of Orléans being an extra improbability.

The fall of Paris can certainly count as a great victory, and I wouldn't be surprised if in number of Frenchmen under their control it was the most important victory for the French, but not in losses among the English.

But you'll note that they didn't lose all in France, even in the Ile-de-France.

Before seven years be passed, unless Joan had a different definition of the Ile-de-France than Wikipedia does.

Asked what promises they made, she answered, She said also that they promised the said Jean to bring her to paradise and she had asked it of them, end quote.

That last section is uncheckable.

The rest is a very simple prophecy that boils down to, We'll win the war.

To the extent it predicts anything more specific, it's, We will win in this generation, before the throne passes to the king's heir.

Quote, Asked if the voices had told her that within three months she would be delivered from prison, she answered, That is not in your case, however.

I do not know when I shall be delivered.

Asked if her counsel had not told her that she would be delivered out of the present prison, she answered, quote, Ask me in three months' time, then I will tell you.

She added, Ask the assessors, on their oath, if that concerns my trial.

Asked afterwards when the assessors had deliberated and unanimously concurred that it did, she said, I've already told you that you cannot know all.

One day I must be delivered.

End quote.

That sure looks like she's making an incorrect prediction, that she'll escape prison.

If true, this would sink her case.

The only problem is that the text goes on.