Scott Alexander

It had started around 30 or 40% and stayed there throughout most of 2024, climbing up by the beginning of 2025 to around 50%.

It then dipped through mid 2025 and has climbed up again quickly at the end of 2025.

Scott writes, this market is up 10 points on news that GDP last quarter rose 4.3% with no increase in hours worked.

Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?

A polymarket question currently sitting on 36% chance.

And another one, will the California billionaire wealth tax pass?

37% chance.

Scott writes, A California union has announced a campaign to force a 2026 ballot proposition that levies a one-time, in quotes, wealth tax on billionaires.

The mere threat of this tax has spooked several billionaires, including Google founders Larry Page and Sergey Brin, into leaving the state.

The initiative would apply to anyone residing in California as of 1-1-2026, so there's incentive for them to leave proactively.

The markets above are the first attempts I've seen to estimate the chance of it actually passing.

Another market, will Trump slash USA buy or acquire part of Greenland?

In March, April, it was quite spiky, but sitting at around 30%.

It stayed at that level until around June when it dropped down to under 10%.

It stayed under 10% until the start of 2026, then spiked really hard, almost up to 100%.

It's maybe 90 or 95%.

Then dropped back down where it's been oscillating around by about 10%.

It's currently sitting on 21%.

Scott writes, Will an AI system be reported to have successfully blackmailed someone for more than $1,000 by end of year 2028?

It's showing a 90% chance.