Scott Alexander

That perspective looked correct as recently as last year, but his chances have been swinging around recently.

They're currently below 50-50.

The election is April 12.

Another question.

President of Venezuela at the end of 2026.

Currently the winner is Delcy Rodriguez at 48%.

with Other at 22%, Maria, Karina Machado at 10%, and others beneath that.

Scott writes, after Maduro's capture, control has passed to his vice president, with the US saying they're mostly interested in extracting oil.

The markets give her a 51% chance of staying on for the long haul.

And here is a long list of all major Venezuela-related prediction markets, link in post, including how the country will be classified in The Economist's 2027 Democracy Index, 40% chance still an authoritarian regime, and a very subjective one about whether the author will feel that Venezuelans are better off, in quotes, by the end of the year, 65% chance.

Another one, did COVID-19 come from a laboratory, currently sitting on 26% chance?

It's been steadily declining since its high point in around 2023, where it was sitting at about 80% chance.

It has been spiking a little bit in the last few months.

Scott writes, strange things happening on the COVID lab leak market, which has declined to 27%.

This peaked at about 85% in 2023, declined a bit around the root claim debate in my article on it, then stayed around 50-50 for a year or so.

But for the past eight months, it's been gradually trending downward with no end in sight.

Some of the change probably involves the discovery of a natural bat coronavirus with a furin cleavage site last October, but I'm surprised by the extent of the decline.

Another question, this one's by Scott Alexander.

By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

It's currently sitting on a 50% chance.