Scott Alexander

Well, they are still doing that.

And once they're fully autonomous, they can even do that much faster.

You can have all the million copies connected to all these various real-world research programs and stuff like that.

So it's not like they're completely starved for outside stuff.

Maybe this is also where the serial speed actually does matter a lot, because if they're running at like 50x human speed, then that means you can have sort of like a year of subjective time happen in a week of real time.

And so these sorts of, like, large-scale cooperative dynamics of, like, you know, your moral maze.

You have an institution, but then it becomes, like, a moral maze and, you know, it sort of collapses under its own weight and stuff like that.

There actually is time for them to, like, play that out multiple times and then, like, train on it, you know?

And, like...

tinker with the structure and add it to the training process over the course of 2027.

Also, again, like they are starting from a higher floor, right?

They're starting from human institutions.

You can literally have like a Slack workspace for all the AI agents to communicate and you can have like a hierarchy with roles and like...

They can borrow quite a lot from successful human institutions.

I think that's totally reasonable.

within this matter of... Like, so we depict it happening over the course of, like, you know, six to eight months or something like that in 2027.

What would you say, like, twice as long, five times as long, ten times as long?

So five years, if they're going at 50x serial speed, then five years is, like, is what, like...

250 years of sort of serial time for the AIs, which to me feels like more than enough to like really like sort out this sort of stuff.

Like you'll have time for like sort of like empires to rise and fall, so to speak.