Scott Alexander

And like all of that to be like added to the chaining data and like, yeah.

But I could see it taking longer than we depict.

Like, you know, maybe instead of six months, it'll be like 18 months, you know.

But also maybe it could be two months.

So again, we have that three-part division of the superhuman coder, then the complete AI researcher, and then the superintelligent.

You're not jumping ahead to that one.

There I would say... So now we're imagining systems that are true superintelligence.

They are just better than the best humans at everything, including being better at data efficiency and better at learning on the job and stuff like that.

Now, our scenario does depict...

a world in which they're bottlenecked on real-world experience and that sort of thing.

I think that if you want to contrast, some people in the past have proposed much faster scenarios where they email

some cloud lab and start building nanotech right away by just using their brains to figure out the appropriate protein folding and stuff like that.

We are not depicting that in our scenario.

In our scenario, they are, in fact, bottlenecked on lots of real-world experience to build these actual practical technologies.

But the way they get that is they just actually get that experience and it happens faster than humans would.

And the way they do that is

You know, they're already super intelligent.

They're already buddy-buddy with the government.

The government deploys them heavily in order to beat China and so forth.

And so all these existing U.S.