Scott Alexander

companies and factories and military procurement providers and so forth are all, like...

chatting with the super intelligences and taking orders from them about like how to build the new widget and test it and like they're like downloading super intelligent designs and you know Manufacturing them and then testing them and so forth and then the question is like, okay, so they are getting this experience They're learning on the job quantitatively.

How fast does this go?

Like does it is it taking years or is it taking months or is it taking days right in our story?

It takes like about a year

And we're uncertain about this.

Maybe it's going to take several years.

Maybe it's going to take less than a year, right?

Here are some factors to consider for why it's plausible that it could take a year.

One, you're going to have something like a million of them.

And quantitatively, that's like comparable in size to the existing scientific industry, I would say.

Like maybe it's a bit smaller, but it's not like dramatically smaller.

Two, they're thinking a lot faster.

They're thinking like 50 times speed or like 100 times speed.

That, I think, counts for a lot.

And then three, which is the biggest thing, they're just qualitatively better as well.

So not only are they, there are lots of them and they're thinking very fast, but they are better at learning from each experiment than the best human would be at learning from that experience.

Like, a lot of the research actually comes from, like, the best ones, you know?

It's only 4X.

Also just for Tesla.