Scott Alexander

Experts predict, quote, significantly less AI progress than leaders of frontier AI companies, end quote, but, quote, much faster AI progress than the general public.

5.

Manifold has launched Predictal, a Wordle-inspired game where you have to rank events by the Manifold-endorsed probability of them happening.

Is the screen capture predictable?

Sort these markets from highest to lowest probability.

Will Republicans win the Senate in the 2026 elections?

Will Maria Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31st?

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?

Earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher before January 12th?

And will Trump win the Global Peace Prize in 2026 high liquidity?

Submit guess.

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Welcome to the Astral Codex X podcast for the 9th of January, 2026.

Title, The Permanent Emergency.

This is an audio version of Astral Codex X, Scott Alexander's Substack.

If you like it, you can subscribe at astralcodex10.substack.com.