Scott Alexander

Here are some of the most interesting alleged rules-cuckings of 2026.

Mr. Ozzy, will Zelensky wear a suit?

Ivan Kryptoslav calls this, quote, the most infamous example in polymarket history, end quote.

Ukraine's president dresses mostly in military fatigues, vowing never to wear a suit until the war is over.

As his sartorial notoriety spread, polymarket traders bet over $100 million on the question of whether he would crack in any given month.

At the Pope's funeral, Zelensky showed up in a respectful-looking jacket, which might or might not count.

Most media organizations refused to describe it as a suit, in quotes, so the decentralized oracle ruled against.

But over the next few months, Zelensky continued to straddle the border of suithood, and the media eventually started using the word suit in their articles.

This presented a quandary for the oracle, which was supposed to respect both the precedent of its past rulings and the consensus of media organizations.

Voters switched sides several times until finally settling on no.

True suit believers were unsatisfied with this decision.

For what it's worth, the Twitter menswear guy told Wired that, quote, it meets the technical definition, but I would also recognize that most people would not think of that as a suit, end quote.

Doma, will Ukraine agree to the US mineral deal?

As far as I can tell, this is the only case where the oracle genuinely broke down, as opposed to a legitimate disagreement.

In February, it looked like both America and Ukraine had agreed to a mineral deal, but the Oracle considered the question and decided this didn't count as a full agreement.

And indeed, the apparent agreement fell apart.

In March, a cabal of Yes holders tried again.

They waited for a time when all Polymarket employees would be out of the office, and when not too many people would be voting on the decentralized resolution oracle, then spammed it with calls to resolve to Yes based on an argument that the February agreement had qualified after all.

The Yes holders, and not particularly plugged-in oracle voters, pushed the vote towards Yes.

Then, with two minutes to spare, a Polymarket employee showed up and said that Polymarket's opinion was that it should be no.