Scott Alexander

When Machado later won, observers suspected insider trading.

But an account named PhantomBets claimed to have interviewed the winning trader.

Although he did not reveal his exact strategy, his claims better match a story where he was good at navigating WordPress directories and found that the Nobel team put a draft of the announcement up early in a non-public part of their WordPress site.

He won about $70,000.

This is a small town in Ukraine, far from the front line that the Russians obviously were not going to capture.

The polymarket price trended towards zero.

The resolution criteria named maps by the well-regarded Institute for the Study of War as canon.

A few hours before resolution, ISW updated their maps to show the center of that town captured by Russia, which was obviously false.

Polymark had resolved to yes, and the fictional Russian advance disappeared.

The institute then issued a statement saying the map update was unapproved, in quotes, and fired one of its staffers who had presumably been involved.

The cheater's exact winnings are unknown, but based on the size of the market, are probably mid-six digits.

TechCrunch.

What words will be used in Coinbase's earnings call?

Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong delivered the company's earnings call, that is, a speech to investors about its recent progress.

At the end, he said, "...and I just want to add here the words Bitcoin, Ethereum, Blockchain, Staking, and Web3 to make sure we get those in before the end of the call."

There had been prediction markets on whether he would say any of those things.

Armstrong is worth $10 billion and doesn't need to manipulate a $50,000 market to make money.

He later clarified that he was trolling, in quotes.

Other crypto executives condemned the move, with one saying that, quote, I might need my head examined because I think it's at least kind of funny.

Forbes.